Dry bulk

Dry bulk is still carrying strong momentum into 2026, especially in the larger segments. Capesize rates climbed to multi-year highs by late 2025 and remained firm into early 2026, supported by long-haul Guinean bauxite and Brazilian iron ore exports against relatively limited fleet growth. That strength has been the main exception to a broader pattern where the structural balance between vessel demand and effective cargo-carrying capacity has capped freight-rate spikes across most vessel segments.

Volatility is likely to remain the defining feature through 2026. The largest swing factor remains Chinese demand. Even with supportive tonne-mile tailwinds in parts of the Atlantic basin, the upside from incremental West African bauxite flows and Brazilian iron ore volumes is unlikely to fully offset weaker Chinese pull if end demand softens or restocking fades. In that case, the market can shift from a strong start toward a more moderate — and potentially softer — rate environment as the year progresses, particularly once seasonal strength rolls off.

Tactically, this leaves a market that can continue to reward exposure to the larger-vessel tightness while remaining vulnerable to abrupt repricing if Chinese demand underperforms. The upside case is most defensible where tonne-mile support remains persistent and fleet growth stays constrained; the downside risk is concentrated in scenarios where the China-facing demand engine loses momentum and the market reverts toward mid-cycle earnings.

In the dry bulk minor segment, the setup for the year ahead is more muted. These vessel classes are more exposed to mixed cargo bases, regional trade patterns, and local vessel availability, and they do not benefit to the same degree from the long-haul bauxite and iron-ore tailwind that has supported Capesize. A firm large-vessel market can create some positive spillover through vessel substitution and broader sentiment, but that alone is unlikely to carry the smaller sizes if effective capacity builds and demand does not follow through.

The Ultramax orderbook in particular continues to cast a shadow over the outlook, while the Handysize supply side appears more balanced — supported by a thinner orderbook and an older fleet profile. Minor bulk can therefore present opportunities in the year ahead, but it pays to remain flexible. The preference is for operators with shorter charter coverage and the ability to reposition quickly around freight-market volatility.