Despite eight months of heightened geopolitical turmoil, shipping equities have performed remarkably well through 2026. Across the three main segments, dry bulk, tanker, and container, returns have been impressive if volatile, at +54%, +72%, and +30% respectively. With ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty, the final stretch of the year is likely to bring further volatility, but it should also present opportunities in specific segments.
Tankers as the standout
The standout segment of 2026 has been crude and product tankers, cast into the nexus of geopolitics as one of the key pillars of the US–Iran conflict. Crude tankers have returned +85% YTD at the index level, while product tankers have performed comparatively worse but still returned +53%. Both segments have been subject to significant volatility, surging sharply on the US intervention in Venezuela in early 2026 and again as conflict with Iran escalated in February. Peace talks and normalisation attempts have since produced jagged downward swings, but absolute TCE and equity levels remain historically high.
Dry bulk with notable divergence
Dry bulk has similarly been affected by geopolitical uncertainty through the year, in part through its exposure to oil and bunker prices. Major bulk companies, Panamax and Capesize players, have seen impressive returns of +66% at the index level. Minor bulk has been less impressive at +36% over the same period, still representing outperformance versus the S&P 500 but reflecting the more challenging supply-demand balance in the Ultramax and Handysize segments.
A somewhat positive outlook for feeders
Container returns have also been strong, though concentrated more toward the feeder end of the market. From January to August, feeder equities have returned +38%, driven in part by continued strong time-charter rates and long-term contract coverage. The liner segment has been more muted at +24% YTD, held back by uncertainty around the growing orderbook, which is expected to weigh on future liner profitability once the geopolitical buffer fades. Feeders represent a more attractive opportunity in the container space, with a more favourable supply-side outlook and continued resilience in charter rates on longer-dated contracts.
Crude tankers are the clear leader in returns YTD
It is impossible to predict how the geopolitical situation will unfold in the final months of the year, which is precisely why investors should stay flexible in their shipping exposure. Despite the uncertainty, the underlying supply and demand fundamentals look constructive for the larger vessel classes in dry bulk and for crude tankers. In containers, feeders remain the cleanest way to stay exposed given their tighter orderbook and the earnings visibility delivered by long-term time-charter coverage.
